At the hearings, which ended the regular session of the Parliament of Kazakhstan, they “poured water” – the deputies and heads of relevant departments considered the problems and prospects for the development of the water industry. At the end of the high meeting, the air was shaken by the “news” : the republic is working on the creation of a water and energy consortium in Central Asia. And only enlightened recipients of information again experienced the déjà vu syndrome …
Statistics without water
In the report of the Minister of Ecology, Geology and Natural Resources Serikkali Brekeshev, the topic of the water and energy consortium of Central Asia was mentioned in passing, without specification. He focused on statistics and forecasts, which confirm that the supply of water to the republic is becoming an increasingly sophisticated quest every year, the problem of shortages is aggravating, and it is impossible to solve it in a unilateral format.
With an annual limit of 28.6 cubic meters. km in 2021, water withdrawal in the Republic of Kazakhstan amounted to 24.6 cubic meters. km, and in some regions a “very tense” water management situation has already developed – the available resources barely cover water needs. Thus, in the Aral-Syrdarya basin, where 60% of the irrigated areas of the republic are concentrated, 98% of the water intake is spent on the needs of the basic agricultural sector.
Taking into account demographic factors, the dynamics of production development, as well as technogenic pollution of rivers in Kazakhstan, by 2030, a significant deterioration in the picture of water supply is expected.
“The shortage of water resources may amount to 23.2 cubic meters. km, which is comparable to the total annual withdrawal,” Brekeshev stated in this regard, adding that by 2040 the situation could worsen irreversibly.
“Lowers” cannot, “tops” do not want
In the water supply of Kazakhstan, the talk of the town is the dependence on transboundary flows from Russia, China and the Central Asian states. The most problematic in the “geography of good neighborliness” is traditionally the Central Asian direction. According to it, the dependence on runoff of the southern and western regions, where more than half of the country’s population lives, is critical: in the Kyzylorda and Turkestan regions, for example, it exceeds 90%.
It would seem that the solution of the issue of the effective use of the common property, by definition, should not cause problems in the relations of neighboring states, connected by many years of experience of “cohabitation”. However, the practice of the post-Soviet period indicates otherwise: after the states of the region gained independence, the water agenda here develops in a changed paradigm of a revolutionary situation: the “lower classes” cannot, the “tops” do not want to.
The plot of the issue is well known: conditionally the “upper” states – Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which account for 85% of the region’s water resources, experiencing a shortage of energy resources, retain water in the summer, blocking access to it by the “lower” neighbors – Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, where in the midst of agricultural work, there is an acute shortage of life-giving moisture.
In the Soviet period, the water-energy antagonism was leveled by the will of a single center: the republics located in the upper reaches of the rivers provided water to their neighbors in the lower reaches in summer, and in winter they received hydrocarbon raw materials as compensation to cover the energy deficit. However, after spreading through the “national apartments”, the mechanism that worked effectively in the conditions of a planned economy turned out to be incapacitated: ambitions surged, resources became a tool for asserting the young state sovereignties.
Over the past thirty years, the Central Asian countries have not managed to reach a consensus on the formation of new water use mechanisms, despite numerous attempts to institutionalize ideas for managing transboundary rivers. This, in particular, also applies to the initiative to create an international water and energy consortium, which was first announced in Cholpon-Ata by representatives of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan as early as July 24, 1997. Later, the idea was repeatedly lobbied by the first president of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, and even discussed the consortium project with representatives of the World Bank and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
However, the creation of a supranational structure required significant “corporate contributions” from the partner states and, most importantly, the delegation of a number of managerial powers, which not everyone was ready to put up with. Obviously, it was this factor that played a decisive role in the fact that the project was constantly shelved.
Don’t let yourself dry out
In the absence of a multilateral consensus, Kazakhstan is trying to keep itself from drying up with the help of improvised means, introducing water-saving technologies into production and promoting a “culture of rational water consumption” in order to reduce water losses. In parallel, bilateral cross-border cooperation with neighbors is developing quite successfully. But these are only “cosmetic” measures that do not radically change the situation.
The priority importance of the water issue for Kazakhstan is evidenced by the fact of increasing its “status” – in March of this year, the Water Council was established under the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan, which is assigned the role of an interdepartmental coordinator on issues of the industry and the development of a unified position in defending the interests of Kazakhstan on transboundary rivers.
In the near future, it is also planned to significantly strengthen the negotiating teams and create a powerful “think tank” on the basis of the Kazakh Research Institute of Water Management to improve water management methods and provide expert support for industry projects.
The legislative framework will also undergo serious adjustments. The draft of the new Water Code of the Republic of Kazakhstan is planned to be submitted to the Parliament in the first half of 2023.
Consortium: Central Asian or Eurasian?
The mentioned measures confirm the aim of the republic to strengthen its position, first of all, in multilateral negotiations. Nobody canceled this format, which was confirmed at the parliamentary hearings by Minister Brekeshev, who announced that he was working on a project to create a water-energy consortium in Central Asia, which, it would seem, had already repeatedly died in the Bose.
And this was not a reservation – in the post-Nazarbayev period, the “forgotten” initiative is reanimated by Kazakhstan not for the first time. In November 2021, the President of the Republic, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, recalled her in Brussels during negotiations with the head of the European Council, Charles Michel. Not only reminded, but also called on the European partners “to contribute to the implementation of the Kazakh initiative.”
In this regard, the questions are updated: in what format does the current political leadership of Kazakhstan see the promotion of the idea? Do other states of the region agree with this vision?
What is the “contribution” of European and, in general, collectively Western “partners” to ensuring the “vital interests” of developing states is well known: in fact, various “assistance” programs turn out to be very effective only in promoting the West’s own interests of dominance, neutralizing the influence of others regional players, creating hotbeds of instability.
Given this credo, the involvement of well-known “philanthropists” in another attempt to institutionalize the process of interaction between the states of the region in a sensitive, vital, but potentially conflict-prone area seems doubtful. Especially in the context of the ongoing geopolitical transformations, when the globalization trend, which has exhausted itself and in many ways discredited itself, is losing ground under the onslaught of the upcoming regionalization. And also taking into account the “tightness” of Kazakhstan between Russia and China, whose relations with the collective West are at a “bifurcation point”.
Both the experience of the past and the logic of future transformations form an imperative: only a strong regional integration structure with significant resources, the Eurasian Economic Union, can best solve the water problem in Central Asia. This position is shared by many experts. Some of them think in broader formats.
“In the first approximation, this is the EAEU. However, in order to achieve not only a fragile balance, but also sustainable development, a larger integration format is needed, which Russia has been promoting since 2016 – the Great Eurasian Partnership (BEP), which can be defined as “integration of integrations,” the expert of the Institute for Research is convinced Central Asia Albert Beloglazov.
In favor of the Eurasian format of institutionalization of the management of water and energy resources in Central Asia, one can attribute the fact that two countries of the region – Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan – are members of the EAEU, Uzbekistan received observer status in 2020, and experts call Tajikistan “candidate No. 1” for membership.
The format of the EAEU is also seen as promising for delivering the states of the region from energy shortages. New opportunities in this segment will open up with the start of operation in 2025 of the common electric power market of the Union.
Is it necessary to “merge” Russia?
Undoubtedly, in the variant of solving the problems of Central Asia based on the integration potential of the EAEU, the role of Russia, the system-forming country and the largest economy of the association, is being updated.
And, by the way, back in 2006, Moscow prepared a project for the creation of a Eurasian water and energy consortium, based on the principle of inseparability of the water and energy regimes of river basins with the regime of electricity consumption in the region. In addition, since the early 2000s, Russia has been actively participating in bilateral sectoral projects, in particular, in the construction of the Sanctudinskaya HPP-2 in Tajikistan and the Upper Naryn cascade of HPPs in Kyrgyzstan.
That is, for the states of the region, the northern neighbor is a proven supplier of experienced personnel, technologies and resources, interested, which is important, in the stable development of the economies of the Central Asian countries, in preserving the ecosystem of the region, in the absence of hotbeds of tension in it.
As for Central Asia, in the new geopolitical realities, it can become a BEP transit hub, a link between Russia, China, the states of the Near and Middle East, which, in the context of the current “reformatting” of the world, is beneficial to all states of Greater Eurasia. The problem of the water and energy complex of Central Asia is regularly raised at the negotiations of the EAEU countries. Last December, at the II Eurasian Congress, a project was presented for the coordinated development of energy systems and energy exchange between the countries of the Union, which, according to the Chairman of the Board of the Eurasian Development Bank Nikolai Podguzov, also allows solving the issue of the main scarce resources of Central Asia with the investment support of the Russian Federation.
This was confirmed by the head of the Russian government, Mikhail Mishustin.
Thus, Russia demonstrates a substantive readiness to engage in a comprehensive solution of water management and energy issues in the region, including from the standpoint of a supranational body in the format of the EAEU.
Whether such a body will be created depends solely on the political will of the leaders of the Central Asian states, who previously, driven by sovereign ambitions, were all losers.
This also applies to Kazakhstan, where a statement was recently made again about another attempt to revive the three-time failed project.
But the other day, good news also came: at the IV Consultative Meeting of the Heads of States of Central Asia held in Cholpon-Ata, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, stating that Central Asia should become a zone of peace, prosperity and comprehensive cooperation, proposed inviting representatives to work at regional platforms Russia and China. “We should not be locked into fixed geographic boundaries. High representatives of other neighboring states, for example, Russia and China, could take part in the work of the Consultative Meetings of the Leaders of Central Asia as invited guests, ” the head of Kazakhstan said .
The proposal, approved by the presidents’ colleagues, inspires optimism that in solving the most important regional problem, the Central Asian states will get out of the deja vu syndrome and point their feet towards the wide-open door.
Olga Sokolay,
Ritmeurasia.ru,
27 July, 2022