against the backdrop of what is happening in Ukraine and around Taiwan, events in other parts of the world go unnoticed by many. Meanwhile, some of them testify that the repartition of the international system and trade relations is taking place not only in the main directions. In particular, the transformation of the geopolitical reality is taking place in Central Asia, where, along with China, an increasingly important role is played by Turkey, which seeks to consolidate its dominant position in the region, including directly or indirectly at the expense of Russia.
One of the proofs of this process is the frequent meetings of representatives of the countries of Central Asia and Turkey. For example, in early May, the Turkish and Kazakh presidents signed a memorandum on strategic partnership and 14 other agreements in Ankara. This included simplification of customs control, military intelligence, information technology, strengthening of transport and transit partnerships, as well as the “more complete use” of the potential of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TMTR, or “Middle Corridor”). At the same time, it was announced that the countries plan to double their trade turnover to $10 billion.
On July 21, a meeting of the speakers of the parliaments of Turkey, Pakistan and Azerbaijan was already held in Istanbul, as a result of which the Istanbul Declaration was signed. According to it, the countries confirmed the continuation of cooperation in areas that promote regional integration, the development of transport, trade and energy, as well as relations between peoples, education, cultural exchange and tourism. Six days later, the ministers of foreign affairs and transport of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkey gathered in Baku to discuss the development of TITR.
On August 2, another meeting took place, which promises to be a landmark. Foreign ministers, ministers of economy, trade and transport of Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Turkey met in Tashkent and discussed many different issues, ranging from economic cooperation to regional and world security.
The outcome of the meeting was the Tashkent Declaration, which identified the main priorities for cooperation between the three countries in the near future. The document contains 14 positions on which Tashkent, Ankara and Baku expressed unity and plan to increase cooperation. Here and “interaction on regional and international issues of mutual interest”, and “full respect for the territorial integrity of each other within their internationally recognized borders”, and “support in accordance with international law, each other’s efforts against actions that threaten sovereignty and territorial integrity”, as well as “continuation of cooperation on issues of mutual interest within the framework of international organizations”. Among other things, the participants stated that they were ready to make “joint efforts to fully realize the potential of cooperation in the fields of economy, trade, investment and transport, including all types of transport and transit communications.” To this end, it is planned to actively use the capabilities of the Baku-Tbilisi-Akhalkalaki-Kars railway, including the ports of Turkey and Azerbaijan, as well as the North-South and East-West transport corridors.
In addition, the parties recognized the importance of Uzbekistan’s initiative to build the Termez-Mazar-i-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar railway line and supported the creation of the Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan-China railway. In addition to everything, as stated by and. about. According to Uzbek Foreign Minister Vladimir Norov, the three countries, in addition to transit functions, plan to form “production and logistics points for the supply of high value-added products to foreign markets” along transport routes. And all this, if you look at the geography of countries, should take place without Russia, but with the direct participation of Turkey, which is rapidly moving towards becoming a center of attraction for the Central Asian countries.
In particular, Turkey has begun to make serious efforts to develop TMTR, which is not just a route, but the whole concept of a global multimodal transport corridor that connects China and Europe, affecting Central Asia, the South Caucasus and adjacent regions. It was developed in 2014 by Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Georgia with the official concept of “revival of the historical Great Silk Road”. At the same time, in connection with the sanctions pressure on Russia that began that year, the real goal of the project was to transport goods bypassing the Russian Federation. That is why the idea was supported by Turkey and Ukraine, and logistics operators from China appeared among the associate members of the project. As a result, the Median Route has also become a commercial company headquartered in Nur-Sultan, which has about 20 transport and logistics operators, as well as a dozen ports.
The already mentioned railway Baku-Tbilisi-Akhalkalaki-Kars is a part of TITM. It was opened in 2017, and today no one hides the fact that in the context of anti-Russian sanctions, this section is considered as one of the options for bypassing the flow of goods on the territory of the Russian Federation.
It is worth noting that earlier Moscow expressed its interest in participating in the Middle Corridor project, but the matter did not move beyond the plans. For a long time, the Russian Federation did not see a special need to invest in this project, especially since China had little interest in it. Beijing knows how to count money, especially since the capacity of the TITR is rather small: in 2020 it was estimated at 200-300 thousand TEU, which is 20 times less than along the main Belt and Road route.
However, the current anti-Russian sanctions may well change the situation, making TMTM attractive to those who plan to refuse or reduce cooperation with the Russian Federation. For example, the Finnish Nurminen Logistics has already acted, which in March closed its representative office in Russia and signed a contract with Kazakhstan Railways. All this, as well as Moscow’s rather unhurried position on TMTM, only pushes Ankara to take more decisive action, since the Turkish capital understands that it may have another chance to improve its status in the region, including by reducing Moscow’s influence here. and not be.
This behavior of Turkey, which formally expresses its friendliness to Russia, cannot be considered something unusual. For Ankara, Central Asia is not only an important component of the trade route with China and the countries of the region, but also part of the historical “responsibility” for the neighboring Caucasus, the Caspian and Black Sea basins, the Balkans, the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. Such ambitions of Ankara are no longer a secret and have even received a special name for the policy of neo-Ottomanism. Within its framework, Turkey seeks to exert the most direct influence on the situation in the post-Soviet states of the Caucasus and Central Asia, which, in turn, affects the interests of Russia, Iran and China. And Ankara is acting in this case in a variety of ways.
For example, it is increasing its economic presence in the region, although not at the pace that the Turkish authorities would like, including due to logistics problems and the lack of developed infrastructure here. Thus, from 2010 to 2020, the trade turnover between Turkey and the Central Asian countries increased from $5.5 billion to $6.3 billion, which is just over 1.5% of the total Turkish foreign trade turnover. Most of all, Turkey trades with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan – the trade turnover with each of them exceeds $ 2 billion. True, it is not yet among the top three in the list of trade partners of these republics. Therefore, it is no coincidence that Ankara is so interested in the “Middle Corridor”, especially against the backdrop of Russia’s problems. It is possible that Turkey will become one of the main players in this project, including under the pretext of supplying the so-called parallel imports to the Russian Federation.
It can also be recalled that Ankara is striving to become the “energy exchange” of Eurasia by monopolizing the energy flows going from east to west. Thus, by 2021, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, operated by BP, transported a total of more than 500 million tons of oil from the Sangachal terminal near Baku to Turkey. Today, the Azerbaijan-Turkey-Europe energy corridor project is also being developed, which, according to Baku, can be completed by 2025.
In addition, we should not forget that Turkey has been strengthening military and political relations with the Central Asian countries for several years, and in past years the idea of creating an “Army of Turan” – a military bloc with the participation of Turkic states – was even voiced. The strengthening of military cooperation between Turkey and the Central Asian countries has increased dramatically since the resumption of the Karabakh conflict in 2020. All this, as well as a number of other, not so noticeable, but no less important actions of Ankara, indicate that Turkey has seriously decided to take a leading position in Central Asia, using both diplomatic and political methods, as well as levers of socio-economic and humanitarian.
The political integration of the Turkic-speaking states of Central Asia and the Caucasus is still not completed. So far, for most of the post-Soviet countries in the region, cooperation with Russia remains a priority both in terms of economic and military security. However, this does not mean that the current activity of Turkey and the growing pressure of the West on the Russian Federation will not be able to change the situation in the foreseeable future. In this regard, Moscow should be more attentive to the policy of its Asian “partner” and not abandon any of the possible projects in the Central Asian region, both political and economic.
Otherwise, if not Turkey, then China or Iran may well completely seize the initiative here, which will create serious problems for Russia on the eastern borders.
Aziz Abdraimov,
Ritmeurasia.org,
August 10, 2022