According to the forecast of the Kazakhstan’s socio-economic development until 2027, GDP in 2023 will be 4%, inflation will develop in the corridor of 7.5-9.5%, and the dollar exchange rate will be at the level of 470 tenge, the head of the Ministry of National Economy Alibek Kuantirov states, Vlast newspaper reports.
“The forecast for the socio-economic development of the country for 2023-2027 has been formed taking into account the final data on economic growth in 2021, the expectations of international financial organizations on the growth of the global economy and prices for export goods. According to the IFO consensus forecast, the world oil price in 2022 is expected at $104.2 per barrel. The growth of the global economy in 2023 will be 3%,” Kuantirov said.
He noted that, depending on changes in external and internal parameters, three scenarios for the development of the economy of Kazakhstan for the next four years have been developed. In particular, under the baseline scenario, the Ministry of Economy proposes to use the average oil price of $85 per barrel and the estimated US dollar rate of 470 tenge to form the budget.
“The average annual real GDP growth under this scenario will be 3.9%, including 4% in 2023,” the minister said.
Under the optimistic scenario, the estimated oil price is set at $110 per barrel, the US dollar rate is 440 tenge. The average annual growth of the economy is projected at 4.2%. The pessimistic scenario provides for an oil price of $60 per barrel and a weakening of the exchange rate to 500 tenge per US dollar. The projected real GDP growth will average 3.5%.
“Inflation in all scenarios is defined in 2023 at the level of 7.5-9.5%, in 2024 – at the level of 4-5%, with a subsequent decrease in 2025-2027 to 3-4%,” Kuantirov stressed.
inozPRESS.kg,
August 29, 2022