No need to expect surprize in Kazakhstan’s election

Extraordinary presidential elections will be held in Kazakhstan in November. After the January events in 2022, these elections draw the attention of the whole world to Kazakhstan. “The upcoming presidential elections will be held without surprises, as the opposition does not have a single strong candidate,” the Sputnik Kazakhstan agency cites the opinion of Kazakh political scientist Daniyar Ashimbaev in its artical.

The election campaign is just beginning now, so it is still difficult to name the candidates. At the same time, there are no candidates in the active parties capable of challenging Tokayev, Ashimbaev the agency said.

“There is no single candidate-leader from the opposition. A strong candidate can be nominated from the party in power, but usually such people do not go to the polls. Let’s remember the success of Kosanov, he was a candidate against everyone,” the expert noted.

The Auyl party is participating “purely symbolically” in the upcoming elections, and their candidate, Zhiguli Dairabaev, will receive a meager percentage of the vote, Ashimbaev said.

“Lonely candidates from public associations have no political weight among society. A former heavyweight who has gone into opposition can be a serious opponent. But now none of them is going to vote, the agency writes.

Most likely, the ultra-right will not be allowed to the elections, avoiding the interethnic agenda, and all the rest have practically no chance to win over a serious percentage of the votes,” the expert continued.

Ashimbaev noted that the opposition National Social Democratic Party (OSDP) is practically “dead” now, but it can be used by nominating a single candidate from the opposition. Ideally, an independent entrepreneur from the opposition could be nominated, but so far there is no such candidate, expert says.

As for Nurzhan Altaev, who represents the El Tiregi party, which is not registered in Kazakhstan, and who may run for election, expert said that he is not particularly popular among Kazakhstanis.

Ashimbaev doubts that former high-ranking officials can enter the election race and compete with Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. He noted that the political careers of, for example, Dariga Nazarbayeva, Nurlan Nigmatulin, Askar Mamin and Imangali Tasmagambetov are not over, but they will not go to these elections.

“They went into standby mode. I think they will become more active over time, but not now. Imangali Tasmagambetov is a good speaker, he was considered as one of Nazarbayev’s successors, but his environment gave many reasons for corruption scandals, which restrained his political ambitions” , the expert commented.

Regarding the possibility of ex-president Nazarbayev’s participation in the elections, the expert said that he would not participate in the elections. At the same time, Nazarbayev will not miss the opportunity to appear in the public field and support Tokayev.

“Tokayev’s election campaign is aimed at fighting the legacy of the “old” Kazakhstan. Despite this, Tokayev is Nazarbayev’s nominee. I think Akorda would not want Nazarbayev to flicker during the elections, but he will not deny himself the pleasure of speaking out in support of Tokayev, as he did it during the referendum,” the political scientist said.

Regarding the electorate of the current President Tokayev, the expert suggested that he would be a candidate from three parliamentary parties at once – the ruling Amanat, Ak Zhol and the People’s Party of Kazakhstan (PPK). All three parties are represented in the Mazhilis of the Parliament.

All three factions have already stated that they will not nominate their own candidates in the elections, but will support Tokayev. In addition, the congresses of these parties are scheduled for one day – October 6.

“I think Tokayev will run for three parties. Now there is a campaign to consolidate society in the country in the face of external crises. Moreover, the candidates from Ak Zhol and the NPC would not play a special role in the elections. No one doubts Tokayev’s victory. Heavyweight with a clean reputation, unfortunately, no, except for the current president himself,” Ashimbaev concluded.

Early presidential elections will be held in Kazakhstan on November 20. The first candidate to put forward his candidacy was Zhiguli Dairabayev from the “Auyl” party. The nomination process will run until October 11, Stutnik Kazakhstan wrote.,
Oct. 4, 2022