It was once part of the Soviet Union, shares a long border with Russia and counts among its citizens a large ethnic-Russian minority. Russian nationalists lay claim to swathes of its territory and President Vladimir Putin has in the past cast aspersions on its statehood. Gennady Zyuganov, the leader of Russia’s Communist Party, has accused it of Russophobia and the oppression of Russian-speakers. Little wonder then that Kazakhstan is watching Mr Putin’s invasion of Ukraine with apprehension verging on horror.
Most countries are treading a fine line. Authorities in Almaty, Kazakhstan’s largest city, have allowed anti-war protests—though only once—and Kazakh police have fined drivers displaying the letter Z, a symbol of Mr Putin’s invasion. Yet two bloggers known for anti-Russian rhetoric have been jailed, too. Uzbekistan has supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity and declined to recognise the breakaway republics. But it has also leant on journalists who are noisily sympathetic to Ukraine.
Kyrgyzstan, which hosts a Russian military base, has come closest to offering (muted) support for Russia. Mr Putin’s recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk may have been “a necessary measure to protect the civilian population”, mused Sadyr Japarov, the president, on Facebook. But that was before the invasion. Since then his public stance has been one of neutrality. Uppermost in his mind may be the position of millions of Kyrgyz migrants working in Russia. That is also a concern for remittance-dependent Tajikistan, which has maintained a studied silence. So has isolationist Turkmenistan, which barely acknowledges what is happening in the outside world and is in any case busy establishing a political dynasty as Serdar Berdymukhamedov, its new president, assumes power from his father, Gurbanguly.
Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are energy-rich and may hope to cash in on buoyant oil and gas prices. But even that can be held hostage. Russia says a pipeline, which crosses its territory to the Black Sea and carries most Kazakh oil, may close for repairs for two months. The move is seen by many as a response to sanctions, with Kazakhstan as collateral damage. “There is this famous saying that if Russia sneezes, Kazakhstan gets a cold,” says a senior Kazakh official. “This will be not a sneeze but perhaps pneumonia, and we will get covid or something.”
March 26, 2022