Economist: Kazakhstan’s president asks Russia for help as unrest grows

The government has been sacked, official buildings torched and a state of emergency declared

When kazakhstan’s government resolved to end subsidies on liquefied petroleum gas (lpg) three years ago, the decision attracted little attention. Its leaders could not have guessed that the move would threaten the very existence of the regime that has ruled the Central Asian country since it became an independent republic in 1991.

Price controls had to go, officials explained at the time, to stimulate investment in a sector plagued with inefficiencies. Fuel producers had little incentive to increase supply when the system meant they ended up selling it at a loss. On January 1st fuel prices became fully market-based. The cost of lpg, which many Kazakhs use instead of petrol or diesel to run their cars, soon shot up, doubling in some places from 60 tenge ($0.14) a litre at the end of last year to 120 tenge by January 2nd.

Protests immediately broke out in Zhanaozen, a depressed town in the oil-rich western part of Kazakhstan. It did not take long for them to spread around the vast country, snowballing from a specific grievance about fuel prices into broader demands for regime change. By January 5th protesters had stormed buildings in Almaty, the largest city, and briefly occupied its airport. The president sacked his prime minister and declared a state of emergency. By the afternoon of January 6th at least 12 members of the security forces had been killed and hundreds injured in what authorities were describing as a terrorist attack carried out with international backing. “Dozens” of protesters died in the clashes, police said. Russian troops are arriving to help restore order.

The “old man” is Nursultan Nazarbayev, the octogenarian former president who steered Kazakhstan to independence when the Soviet Union collapsed and now occupies the role of elder statesman. He rules, since his resignation in 2019, in tandem with his handpicked successor, Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev. Some protesters want Mr Nazarbayev to be stripped of his status as Leader of the Nation, which affords him broad powers and privileges, including immunity from prosecution.

It does not help that the most visible symbol of the ruling elites’ arrogance—the glittering new capital of Nur-Sultan—is named after the former president himself. There have long been quiet grumblings about Mr Nazarbayev’s relatives and cronies enriching themselves with proceeds from the country’s natural resources while citizens struggle with a high cost of living and meagre wages. The average salary is less than $7,000 a year. Despite promises of diversification, the economy relies heavily on natural resources. Those grumblings have now burst out into the open.

“Old man out” has taken on a broader meaning, too, targeting not just Mr Nazarbayev but the entire political establishment. Mr Tokayev, who on becoming president in 2019 promised to create what he called a “listening state”, complete with democratic reform and political competition, has failed to deliver change. Stringent restrictions on civil liberties remain, and there are no opposition parties. Protesters have called for the rubber-stamp parliament to be prorogued and for urban and provincial leaders, who are currently appointed, to be elected.

The regime’s first response was to reach for the carrot. On January 4th it promised to cut the price of fuel to below its pre-protest level. The president also ordered officials to regulate prices for six months, in effect reintroducing subsidies. The cabinet was dismissed, in line with demonstrators’ demands. Yet that seemed only to embolden the protesters. Using makeshift weapons, they battled police, stormed Almaty’s city hall and torched other official buildings in several cities and toppled a statue of Mr Nazarbayev in one town.

In the hours before, Mr Tokayev had said that he was launching an “anti-terrorist operation” to beat back rebels who had seized weapons from gun shops. Some 350 members of the security forces had been injured, according to the interior ministry. Shooting and looting broke out overnight in Almaty. Police were battling foreign-trained terrorists outside the city, he claimed. Commentators loyal to President Vladimir Putin have suggested that the West is trying to foment a colour revolution in Kazakhstan. The aim of this imaginary plot is supposedly to destabilise Russia as it prepares to talk to nato about its threats to invade Ukraine.

As the situation deteriorated, Mr Tokayev took the dramatic step of requesting assistance “in overcoming this terrorist threat” from the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (csto), a military alliance of six post-Soviet states formed in 1994. Nikol Pashinyan, the prime minister of Armenia, which currently chairs the csto, said that the bloc had decided to send peacekeeping forces “for a limited period, in order to stabilise and normalise the situation”. It is the first time that the csto has invoked Article 4 of its treaty, which covers threats to national security including supposed “foreign interference”.

Though the alliance has never before convened in a crisis, it conducted numerous joint exercises in the summer and autumn of last year, notes Rob Lee of King’s College London, partly in response to the steady collapse of Afghanistan, which shares a border with the bloc. “The csto’s rapid reaction forces should be better prepared to respond than normal”, he says. Russian paratroopers were arriving in Kazakhstan at the time of publication.

csto troops would be used to guard infrastructure, according to one Russian lawmaker, freeing up Kazakh forces for the bloodier work of crushing protesters. Mr Tokayev may also be hoping that Russia’s involvement will stiffen the spines of his security forces, reducing the likelihood of defections or a coup. But the decision to solicit outside help is a fateful step for the country. “Tokayev is throwing away Kazakhstan’s sovereignty by asking for Russians to intervene,” says Jen Brick Murtazashvili of the University of Pittsburgh.

Another complication is that many of the Russian military units tasked with responding to crises in Central Asia are currently sitting near the Ukrainian border, far from their home bases, as part of a Kremlin effort to intimidate a neighbour and squeeze nato. Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, caught by surprise by events on his southern flank, might face a choice between diverting forces from the west, thus diluting his ability to make credible threats before crucial talks with America and nato next week, or limiting the scope of any assistance to Kazakhstan.

Mr Tokayev has so far blamed internal provocateurs, outside forces, his own government and oil companies for the unrest. In a televised address on January 5th intended to convey resolve he said he would act “robustly” and reassured citizens that “whatever happens, I will remain in the capital”. It is unclear whether that is what his country’s citizens want to hear.

Economist,

January 8, 2022