Outside perspective on Kyrgyz-Tajik border conflict

A look at any events from the outside is closer to an objective assessment. However, not all experts see the situation as it really is. The Russian newspaper Izvestia tried to explain the situation through the opinion of its experts. 

The length of the border between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan is 970 km. During the Soviet Union, both republics were part of a single state. The borders between them were nominal and there were practically no conflicts. They were made for economic reasons. At the same time, the ethnic factor remained in the background.

Independent states have a lot of claims to each other. Most often, disagreements arise because of ethnic striping and claims to infrastructure elements – pastures, water intakes, canals. As a result, 450 km of the border has not yet been delimited, and 70 sections are considered disputed.

Due to the uncertainty of the exact line of division of states, conflicts regularly arise on the border. In total, more than 150 incidents have occurred over the past 15 years. This year, several major clashes have already been recorded. Literally two days before the current battle, on September 14, the border guards of the two countries fired at each other with mortars, two Tajik soldiers were killed.

What did both sides come to

In June, a firefight broke out when two border detachments clashed in a disputed area. In January, Bishkek accused the Tajik military of trying to build a road through Kyrgyz territory to the Tajik enclave of Vorukh. Dozens of people were injured during the battle.

It would seem that resolving disagreements is simple – it is enough to completely delimit the border. But it fails to do so. Bishkek and Dushanbe appeal to maps from different years and are not ready to compromise. In addition, public opinion puts pressure on the authorities of the two countries, both sides fear the discontent of citizens. As a result, the parties constantly talk about their intentions to solve the problem, but do not move in this direction. So, after the June border conflict, the presidents of the two countries agreed to continue the dialogue on demarcation, but there was no real progress.

At the same time, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are regularly offered assistance. For example, in July, the President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, took the initiative. He proposed to create an expert platform to develop mutually acceptable approaches to the delimitation of borders, to attract experienced lawyers, cartographers and border guards. Russia has also repeatedly offered assistance. On September 14, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that they were ready to assist Bishkek and Dushanbe in reaching a long-term mutually acceptable solution to border issues. The authorities of the two countries, however, shy away from these initiatives.

What’s next

Experts say that conflicts will continue to arise. “In a sense, these clashes are needed by the elites of their countries. The fact is that both Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are poor states. The population is embittered, poisoned by nationalism. You have to get rid of the negativity somewhere. Tajikistan has experience of civil war, in Kyrgyzstan we have seen several coups with pogroms. The authorities do not want a repetition of such events, so it is beneficial for them to construct the image of an external enemy. This partly explains the connivance of officials,” political analyst Azhdar Kurtov noted in an interview with Izvestia.

Kazakhstani political scientist Marat Shibutov draws attention to the fact that heavy weapons were used during the confrontation: “They are talking about the use of artillery. And this means that in which case the transition from a border armed conflict to a full-fledged war will be very, very fast.”

Andrey Grozin, head of the Central Asia Department at the Institute of CIS Countries, said that the nature of conflicts has changed in recent years. “Ten years ago, clashes on the border involved civilians on both sides. They fought and threw stones at each other. But over the past five years, military personnel have become more and more often involved. And the further, the more heavy weapons they use. Mortars and armored vehicles became familiar. The innovation of this collision is the use of MLRS. That is, there is a threatening dynamic, the increasing involvement of law enforcement agencies,” the expert emphasized.

He adds that the heads of the SCO countries helped to extinguish the current conflict. “Fortunately, the clash broke out during the summit in Samarkand. Probably, the leaders of the largest countries were able to convey to the presidents of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan the unacceptability of hostilities. Therefore, the incident died out quickly enough. But with such dynamics, no one guarantees that the next border conflict will not escalate into larger clashes,” says Grozin.

Photo: Kyrgyz Border Guard Service

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Sept. 17, 2022