After the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, the United States was expecting NATO ally Turkey to counter Russian influence in Central Asia. Three decades on, the outcome of a brief conflict over the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh might serve such a purpose, said Yusuf Erim, an analyst for Turkish state-run broadcaster TRT.
“If America wants meaningful influence and presence in the region, it can benefit from the diplomatic space created by Ankara,” Erim said in an article in the National Interest on Sunday.
Six-weeks of clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh ended in Azeri victory in November, paving the way for Turkey to enhance its strategic presence in the Caucasus. Turkey supported Azerbaijan in the war with weapons, military know-how and militants from Syria. Its army officers now help Russia police a ceasefire.
“This expanding influence of Turkey, a NATO member country, has created a window of opportunity for Washington to engage in meaningful dialogue with a region that has high strategic value and limitless economic prospects,” Erim said.
Turkey is seeking to mend ties with the United States, undercut by its purchase of S-400 air defence missiles from Russia, the increasing authoritarianism of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his government’s regular criticism of U.S policy, which has included suggesting that U.S. officials backed a failed military coup in 2016.
Turkey may also provide a stronger counterweight to Chinese influence in Central Asia, Erim said.
“While much of Central Asia is post-Soviet space and has been under Moscow’s monopoly, this past decade has seen Beijing splash into this geography with its Belt and Road Initiative,” he said.
While China is seeking to draw Turkey into its orbit away from the United States, Russia will want to counter Chinese influence, and this power game between the two Asian countries would make Turkey a significant ally, Erim said.
“U.S. support would provide Turkey with more confidence to make deeper inroads into this geography,” he said.
Washington and Ankara’s cooperation in Central Asia would positively impact bilateral relations and help switch the agenda of forthcoming contacts between President Joe Biden and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan away from divisive issues, Erim said.
U.S. support for Kurdish fighters in northern Syria has also sparked political tensions between the two countries.
“Ahval”
08.03.21