Central Asia: Protest activity grows along with political turbulence

Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan were at the top of the list of countries in Central Asia with high protest activity of the population. Such data is published by the portal inbusiness.kz, referring to the data of the project on the location and events of armed conflicts – ACLED, Ritmeurasia wrote.

According to these data, over the past three years, these two countries account for the largest number (84%) of protest actions in the region. At the same time, Kazakhstan accounts for 59% of all demonstrations, while Kyrgyzstan accounts for exactly a quarter of all protests.

According to the ACLED database, during the period under review, there were 2,915 episodes of various kinds of demonstrations in Kazakhstan, among which the majority were peaceful protests – 87%. At the same time, cases when the authorities tried to suppress protests without the use of weapons and civilian casualties accounted for 4% of the total number of protests in the republic. Of course, the events of the “bloody January” of 2022 stand apart, during which 238 people were killed. About 10 thousand people were detained.

In addition, it is noted that over the year, protest activity has grown in three of the five countries in the region (with the exception of Tajikistan and Turkmenistan).

If we take peaceful protests, then in Kazakhstan over three years they accounted for 92% of all events, in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan – 82% and 80%, respectively, and in Tajikistan and Turkmenistan – more than a quarter in each of the countries. As for actions accompanied by violence against their participants, in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan their share was respectively 6% and 7% of cases for the entire period under review. At the same time, the portal notes an increase in the number of such episodes: if for the full year 2020, 22 and 18 cases were recorded in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, respectively, then in 2021 this figure increased by about 2 times in both countries.

It cannot be said that the data presented are surprising.

As for Kyrgyzstan, it is the only country in the post-Soviet space that has survived as many as three revolutions in 15 years. For her, a violent change of power, during which the incumbent president was overthrown, and about five years later the one who overthrew the predecessor was overthrown, has already become the norm. The reasons for starting revolutions are standard: dissatisfaction with corruption, nepotism and rising prices, as well as unfair, according to the protesters, elections (in two out of three cases, people took to the streets just after the announcement of the voting results, which the current government always won). Local clans are already accustomed to solving the problem of a change of power through riots.

As for Kazakhstan, in this country in its entire history there has been only one major coup attempt (not counting the protests of workers in the west of the country suppressed by the authorities), and even that happened after the leader, who had been unchangeable for almost 30 years, voluntarily resigned state Nursultan Nazarbayev, and his successor was still in the process of full possession of power.

In Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, the change of power happened only after the death of the same, it would seem, permanent leaders – mastodons of politics from the CPSU – Karimov and Niyazov. Subsequently, a hereditary transfer of power took place in Turkmenistan. In both countries, the inviolability of the rulers rests primarily on tough (especially in Turkmenistan) authoritarian regimes that do not allow even the hypothetical possibility of anarchy that happened in Kyrgyzstan. However, it should be noted that the same was thought about Kazakhstan until January 2022.

As for Tajikistan, the country is still experiencing the consequences of a civil war, and the government is largely based on the consensus of secular elites who do not want it to repeat itself, as well as on the Russian military. But its position cannot be characterized as especially strong.

If we talk about “color revolutions” (and everywhere in the post-Soviet space, including in Central Asia, precisely their classic signs are observed), then it is worth recalling what conditions are necessary for them.

The first is an authoritarian, corrupt regime, the irremovability of power. This factor is present in one way or another everywhere. Except maybe Kyrgyzstan, where the faces in power are changing.

The second is poverty and huge social stratification. Also everywhere. Moreover, in most of the cases we are considering, the candidate country for the “revolution” literally bathes in oil and gas money, being an actual “raw material colony”, as a result, nothing falls to the population from oil and gas incomes, on the contrary, the cost of energy for citizens remains higher than in importing countries. Let me remind you that in Kazakhstan at the very beginning of this year, it was the rise in prices for liquefied gas, used by a significant part of the population, that became the reason for the riots.

I already wrote earlier that Kazakhstan is experiencing a colossal socio-economic disproportion, when the extractive regions of the west of the country live many times poorer than the east, which actually parasitizes on them. This disproportion is due to the clan structure of society.

So, the third factor is the clan structure with constant internal strife. This is clearly seen in Kyrgyzstan, where the North and South are constantly overthrowing each other’s power, and in Tajikistan, where this confrontation turned into a full-fledged civil war in the 90s.

The fourth factor is nationalism and religious fundamentalism, which are often specially nurtured by the authorities to divide and control society. It is often the extremists, whose existence the authorities not only turn a blind eye to, but, on the contrary, indulge in them, who become the striking force of “revolutions”.

As for the Islamic factor, it should be noted that it is extremely strong in Tajikistan, where the radicals were one of the sides of the civil war, it is quite strong in Uzbekistan, where the banned Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan * (in 2015 joined the ranks of the banned ISIS *) keeps stable position, despite the repression of the authorities, spreading their “tentacles” in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Pakistan and Afghanistan, where the militants managed to gain combat experience.

According to a study by the American center Soufan Group, according to data for 2015 (the height of the fight against banned ISIS in Syria and Iraq), among the militants there were citizens of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan (500 people each), Tajikistan – 386 people, Turkmenistan – 360 people, Kazakhstan – 300 people . Well, in “secular” Kazakhstan, the Islamists showed themselves during the January events.

The fifth factor is the geopolitical orientation, which the “revolutionaries” seek to change, blaming the main ally for all the country’s problems. In most cases, we are talking about the rejection of the pro-Russian vector (and most often, existing only in words) in favor of the pro-Western or, again, Islamist.

Well, the sixth factor is the presence of American NGOs freely operating in the country. A classic example is the well-known Soros Foundation, which was closed in Uzbekistan only in 2004, and continues to work in Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan to this day.

True, no Western NGOs have ever worked in Turkmenistan due to the closed nature of the country, but this is not a guarantee of stability either. A suddenly formed gap can be instantly filled with completely destructive elements.

In other words, we see that absolutely all the states of Central Asia are powder kegs, to which extremists periodically strive to strike a match.

It is worth paying attention to the geopolitical situation in the region, for influence in which and for the resources of which Russia, the United States, China and Turkey are fighting. And if the latter is only trying to get involved in this game, then the first three countries compete, periodically pushing each other, throughout the history of independence of these countries.

Today the situation is aggravated given the intentions of the Americans who left Afghanistan to place their military bases in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Some analysts believe that the increased clashes on the Kyrgyz-Tajik border, the attempted coup in Kazakhstan were “probing the ground” by the “third” party – the Anglo-Saxons.

Tensions in Afghanistan are not reduced. The list of risks also includes an intensification of the confrontation between the United States and China. Do not forget that China is one of the largest investors and creditors of the countries of the region, it has long been trying to seize its resources, which the Americans cannot like. In Kazakhstan, he has long been trying to oust the Anglo-Saxons who have firmly established themselves there, which, according to many experts, has become almost the key task of the coup planned in January. Moreover, the current president of the republic, Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev, is perceived by many in the West as a man of Beijing.

Finally, we take into account the current confrontation between the West and Russia, which has finally and irrevocably entered the stage of a full-scale economic and hot “proxy war”. In this context, Central Asia, being a zone of traditional influence of Moscow, is considered by the West as one of the “fronts”. Lately there has been talk of a second front against Russia, most often referring to Moldova and Transcaucasia. But Central Asia, where destructive events can seriously hit the Russian Federation, can also become one. The coincidence in time of the aggravation in the zone of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, as well as on the border of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan with the involvement of Russian troops in Ukraine in protracted battles and the abandonment of a number of positions by them does not seem accidental.

It is obvious that the West will make real attempts to rock the region. Moreover, all the prerequisites and opportunities for this are available. Long-standing problems (or rather, the birthmarks of statehood), which have become time bombs laid from the first days of independence, can explode at any moment in any of the countries of the region. It must be understood that protest activity will grow as the economic crisis deepens and turbulence into which the Central Asian countries, having become an object of confrontation between several opposing powers, will slide deeper and deeper.

Source: Ritmeurasia.org,

inozPRESS.kg,
Sept. 21, 2022